V-Lab
Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
22.82%
decreased by 1.46%
1 Week
22.59%
decreased by 1.69%
1 Month
21.76%
decreased by 2.52%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 15, 2018 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 30 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 30 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.27 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1114 | 5.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0712 | 18.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9773 | 191.07*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.2663 | 2.93*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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