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V-Lab

Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

20.47%

decreased by 1.11%

1 Week

20.34%

decreased by 1.24%

1 Month

19.90%

decreased by 1.68%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 15, 2018 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 128% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0279
10.25***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1294
8.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8839
168.55***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0726
-3.79***

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

30 days