V-Lab
Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
20.47%
decreased by 1.11%
1 Week
20.34%
decreased by 1.24%
1 Month
19.90%
decreased by 1.68%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 15, 2018 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 128% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0279 | 10.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1294 | 8.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8839 | 168.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0726 | -3.79*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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