V-Lab
Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
20.92%
decreased by 1.39%
1 Week
20.78%
decreased by 1.53%
1 Month
20.35%
decreased by 1.96%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 15, 2018 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7776 | 7.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1094 | 4.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8452 | 29.59*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0090 | -2.40** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
Other Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs