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V-Lab

Megachips Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

60.99%

increased by 24.86%

1 Week

55.04%

increased by 18.91%

1 Month

47.98%

increased by 11.85%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 02:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Megachips Corp S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 17, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4406
9.58***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1869
7.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5573
11.43***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.0911
-1.44
γ20.0821
0.75
γ30.1087
1.23
γ4-0.1757
-2.39**
γ50.0566
0.90
γ60.1378
2.17**
γ7-0.1525
-2.22**
γ8-0.0770
-0.95
γ90.2165
2.46**
γ10-0.1352
-2.07**

Persistence:

0.744

Half-life:

2 days