Megachips Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
60.99%
increased by 24.86%
1 Week
55.04%
increased by 18.91%
1 Month
47.98%
increased by 11.85%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 02:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 17, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4406 | 9.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1869 | 7.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5573 | 11.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0911 | -1.44 |
| γ2 | 0.0821 | 0.75 |
| γ3 | 0.1087 | 1.23 |
| γ4 | -0.1757 | -2.39** |
| γ5 | 0.0566 | 0.90 |
| γ6 | 0.1378 | 2.17** |
| γ7 | -0.1525 | -2.22** |
| γ8 | -0.0770 | -0.95 |
| γ9 | 0.2165 | 2.46** |
| γ10 | -0.1352 | -2.07** |
Persistence:
0.744
Half-life:
2 days
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