Megachips Corp Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
65.45%
increased by 21.97%
1 Week
61.29%
increased by 17.81%
1 Month
56.65%
increased by 13.17%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 02:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 17, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4438 | 9.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1853 | 7.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5557 | 11.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0954 | -1.52 |
| γ2 | 0.0865 | 0.80 |
| γ3 | 0.1134 | 1.29 |
| γ4 | -0.1859 | -2.53** |
| γ5 | 0.0643 | 1.02 |
| γ6 | 0.1375 | 2.17** |
| γ7 | -0.1603 | -2.31** |
| γ8 | -0.0572 | -0.67 |
| γ9 | 0.1692 | 1.63 |
| γ10 | -0.0033 | -0.02 |
Persistence:
0.741
Half-life:
2 days
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