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V-Lab

Megachips Corp AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

41.26%

decreased by 1.44%

1 Week

41.93%

decreased by 0.77%

1 Month

44.05%

increased by 1.35%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Megachips Corp AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 17, 1998 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.21) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3052
20.61***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0934
34.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8775
282.25***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2130
2.32**

Persistence:

0.971

Half-life:

23 days