Megachips Corp AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
41.26%
decreased by 1.44%
1 Week
41.93%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Month
44.05%
increased by 1.35%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 17, 1998 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.21) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3052 | 20.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0934 | 34.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8775 | 282.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2130 | 2.32** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
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