Megachips Corp Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
59.92%
increased by 6.70%
1 Week
58.97%
increased by 5.75%
1 Month
55.82%
increased by 2.60%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 02:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 17, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days. The volatility power δ = 1.61 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1494 | 15.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1728 | 39.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8167 | 190.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0278 | 3.84*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.6059 | 27.83*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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