V-Lab
Jason Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
15.19%
1 Week
19.53%
1 Month
35.68%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 26, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.4592 | 4.19*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5858 | 10.97*** |
| γleverage | -0.3784 | -3.47*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.3894 | 1.52 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.2867 | 1.87* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.6989 | 4.59*** |
0.856
Persistence4d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4592 | 4.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5858 | 10.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3784 | -3.47*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.3894 | 1.52 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2867 | 1.87* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6989 | 4.59*** |
Persistence:
0.856
Half-life:
4 days
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