V-Lab
Jason Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
18.05%
1 Week
21.87%
1 Month
37.33%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 10:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 26, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4617 | 20.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5849 | 36.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3810 | -18.17*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.4032 | 1.53 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2878 | 1.75* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6965 | 3.77*** |
Persistence:
0.856
Half-life:
4 days
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