V-Lab
Jason Co Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
19.85%
1 Week
20.52%
1 Month
23.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 26, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 780387 trading days (~3096.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 2.17 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0614 | 2.44** |
| αARCH | 0.1088 | 4.38*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8827 | 46.85*** |
| γleverage | -0.0897 | -1.15 |
| δpower | 2.1704 | 7.14*** |
1.000
Persistence780387d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0614 | 2.44** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1088 | 4.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8827 | 46.85*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0897 | -1.15 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.1704 | 7.14*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
780387 days
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