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V-Lab
V-Lab

Jason Co Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

19.85%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Week

20.52%

increased by 0.14%

1 Month

23.00%

increased by 2.62%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Jason Co Ltd APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 26, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 780387 trading days (~3096.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 2.17 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~780387 daysδ = 2.17 · super-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0614
2.44**
αARCH0.1088
4.38***
βGARCH0.8827
46.85***
γleverage-0.0897
-1.15
δpower2.1704
7.14***

1.000

Persistence

780387d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0614
2.44**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1088
4.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8827
46.85***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0897
-1.15
δ

power

Transformation power

2.1704
7.14***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

780387 days