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Jason Co Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

20.24%

decreased by 0.63%

1 Week

23.09%

increased by 2.22%

1 Month

35.18%

increased by 14.31%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Jason Co Ltd AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 26, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.051 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.051 ≥ 1, shocks do not decay
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0909
1.40
αARCH0.2467
5.53***
βGARCH0.8044
29.99***
γleverage-0.4860
-1.36

1.051

Persistence

-

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0909
1.40
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2467
5.53***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8044
29.99***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.4860
-1.36

Persistence:

1.051

Half-life:

-