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V-Lab

Jason Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026

1 Day

21.53%

decreased by 1.11%

1 Week

23.42%

increased by 0.78%

1 Month

29.79%

increased by 7.15%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Jason Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 26, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.27 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~693 daysv = 2.27 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst171.1383
1.51
αARCH0.1142
29.90***
βGARCH0.9990
1,539.29***
νDF2.2654
166.18***

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

171.1383
1.51
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1142
29.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
1,539.29***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.2654
166.18***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days