V-Lab
Jason Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
21.53%
1 Week
23.42%
1 Month
29.79%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 26, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.27 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 171.1383 | 1.51 |
| αARCH | 0.1142 | 29.90*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9990 | 1,539.29*** |
| νDF | 2.2654 | 166.18*** |
0.999
Persistence693d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 171.1383 | 1.51 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1142 | 29.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 1,539.29*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.2654 | 166.18*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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