V-Lab
Jason Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
11.63%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Week
13.47%
increased by 1.55%
1 Month
17.81%
increased by 5.89%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 26, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.9896 | 1.79* |
| αARCH | 0.2418 | 5.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7095 | 16.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.3688 | -0.98 |
| γ2 | 0.9697 | 1.86* |
| γ3 | -1.3330 | -3.12*** |
| γ4 | 1.3755 | 3.56*** |
| γ5 | -1.2249 | -4.74*** |
| γ6 | 1.1999 | 5.07*** |
| γ7 | -1.1134 | -4.55*** |
| γ8 | 0.8320 | 2.18** |
| γ9 | -0.6438 | -1.07 |
| γ10 | 0.4767 | 0.91 |
0.951
Persistence14d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9896 | 1.79* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2418 | 5.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7095 | 16.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.3688 | -0.98 |
| γ2 | 0.9697 | 1.86* |
| γ3 | -1.3330 | -3.12*** |
| γ4 | 1.3755 | 3.56*** |
| γ5 | -1.2249 | -4.74*** |
| γ6 | 1.1999 | 5.07*** |
| γ7 | -1.1134 | -4.55*** |
| γ8 | 0.8320 | 2.18** |
| γ9 | -0.6438 | -1.07 |
| γ10 | 0.4767 | 0.91 |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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