V-Lab
Jason Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
17.12%
decreased by 1.73%
1 Week
18.11%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Month
20.76%
increased by 1.91%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 10:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 26, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0004 | 1.81* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2424 | 5.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7087 | 16.72*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.3739 | -0.99 |
| γ2 | 0.9878 | 1.89* |
| γ3 | -1.3602 | -3.16*** |
| γ4 | 1.4032 | 3.65*** |
| γ5 | -1.2501 | -4.92*** |
| γ6 | 1.2151 | 5.16*** |
| γ7 | -1.1150 | -4.49*** |
| γ8 | 0.8305 | 2.09** |
| γ9 | -0.6417 | -1.04 |
| γ10 | 0.4706 | 0.90 |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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