V-Lab
Jason Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
13.79%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Week
15.13%
increased by 0.80%
1 Month
18.50%
increased by 4.17%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 07:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 26, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.9280 | 1.75* |
| αARCH | 0.2410 | 5.75*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7093 | 16.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.3917 | -1.02 |
| γ2 | 1.0064 | 1.90* |
| γ3 | -1.3576 | -3.16*** |
| γ4 | 1.3967 | 3.62*** |
| γ5 | -1.2453 | -4.86*** |
| γ6 | 1.2146 | 5.16*** |
| γ7 | -1.1174 | -4.54*** |
| γ8 | 0.8289 | 2.12** |
| γ9 | -0.6368 | -1.04 |
| γ10 | 0.4689 | 0.89 |
0.950
Persistence14d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9280 | 1.75* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2410 | 5.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7093 | 16.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.3917 | -1.02 |
| γ2 | 1.0064 | 1.90* |
| γ3 | -1.3576 | -3.16*** |
| γ4 | 1.3967 | 3.62*** |
| γ5 | -1.2453 | -4.86*** |
| γ6 | 1.2146 | 5.16*** |
| γ7 | -1.1174 | -4.54*** |
| γ8 | 0.8289 | 2.12** |
| γ9 | -0.6368 | -1.04 |
| γ10 | 0.4689 | 0.89 |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
14 days
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