V-Lab
Jason Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
21.24%
1 Week
22.85%
1 Month
28.38%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 26, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days. The volatility power δ = 1.48 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1102 | 2.91*** |
| αARCH | 0.1265 | 4.36*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8735 | 35.68*** |
| γleverage | -0.3228 | -1.63 |
| δpower | 1.4840 | 4.96*** |
0.986
Persistence49d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1102 | 2.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1265 | 4.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8735 | 35.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3228 | -1.63 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4840 | 4.96*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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