V-Lab
Shenzhen Zhaowei Machinery & Electronic Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
95.62%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
95.62%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
95.62%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 9, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 108 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.58 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 36.2854 | 0.27 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9936 | 1.45 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.5783 | 0.16 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
108 days
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