V-Lab
Shenzhen Zhaowei Machinery & Electronic Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
43.37%
1 Week
43.80%
1 Month
45.47%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 9, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 82.1389 | 1.36 |
| αARCH | 0.1018 | 3.09*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9990 | 43.52*** |
| νDF | 6.7361 | 0.30 |
0.999
Persistence693d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 82.1389 | 1.36 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1018 | 3.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 43.52*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.7361 | 0.30 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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