V-Lab
Shenzhen Zhaowei Machinery & Electronic Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
67.63%
decreased by 6.86%
1 Week
69.11%
decreased by 5.38%
1 Month
74.16%
decreased by 0.33%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 9, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 47 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 47 days. The volatility power δ = 2.22 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 1.05 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0826 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7746 | 32.56*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 0.00 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.2250 | 4.68*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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