V-Lab
Busy Ming Group Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
30.17%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
68.51%
increased by 38.21%
1 Month
5,687.70%
increased by 5,657.40%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 28, 2026 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0119 | 0.17 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9890 | 77.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0119 | -0.17 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0940 | 0.20 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0003 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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