Busy Ming Group Co Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
70.24%
increased by 1.84%
1 Week
73.37%
increased by 4.97%
1 Month
74.23%
increased by 5.83%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 28, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9010 | 4.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1565 | 1.55 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1030 | 0.26 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 2.2571 | 0.27 |
Persistence:
0.260
Half-life:
1 days
Other Busy Ming Group Co Ltd Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities