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V-Lab
V-Lab

Hongxing Coldchain Hunan Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

35.40%

increased by 16.55%

1 Week

93.74%

increased by 74.89%

1 Month

20,519.25%

increased by 20,500.40%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:01 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Hongxing Coldchain Hunan Co Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 13, 2026 to Sep 18, 2026
Stationarity Enforced
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 67% more than positive returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~138 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 67% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.7450
712.91***
βGARCH0.0000
0.06
γleverage0.5000
522.47***
λ₁tau intercept0.0000
0.00
λ₂forecast adj.0.0431
3.30***
λ₃tau persistence0.9143
40.96***

0.995

Persistence

138d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.7450
712.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.06
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5000
522.47***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0431
3.30***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9143
40.96***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

138 days