V-Lab
Hongxing Coldchain Hunan Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
35.40%
1 Week
93.74%
1 Month
20,519.25%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 67% more than positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.7450 | 712.91*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.06 |
| γleverage | 0.5000 | 522.47*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0431 | 3.30*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9143 | 40.96*** |
0.995
Persistence138d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.7450 | 712.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.06 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 522.47*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0431 | 3.30*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9143 | 40.96*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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