V-Lab
Hongxing Coldchain Hunan Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
37.81%
increased by 9.38%
1 Week
45.92%
increased by 17.49%
1 Month
59.85%
increased by 31.42%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.15 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 5.15 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 20.4130 | 0.66 |
| αARCH | 0.4091 | 2.03** |
| βGARCH | 0.8989 | 5.76*** |
| νDF | 5.1542 | 0.96 |
0.899
Persistence7d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 20.4130 | 0.66 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4091 | 2.03** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8989 | 5.76*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.1542 | 0.96 |
Persistence:
0.899
Half-life:
7 days
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