Hongxing Coldchain Hunan Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
52.29%
increased by 16.06%
1 Week
49.49%
increased by 13.26%
1 Month
46.73%
increased by 10.50%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 74% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.79 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6265 | 4.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2972 | 10.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4922 | 12.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3387 | 4.21*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.7865 | 4.75*** |
Persistence:
0.726
Half-life:
2 days
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