V-Lab
Koninklijke Vopak NV MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
20.51%
increased by 0.62%
1 Week
21.91%
increased by 2.02%
1 Month
24.44%
increased by 4.55%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 01:45 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 4, 1999 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.1055 | 5.82*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7469 | 20.35*** |
| γleverage | 0.0632 | 1.57 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0458 | 0.56 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0076 | 0.73 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9769 | 26.14*** |
0.884
Persistence6d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1055 | 5.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7469 | 20.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0632 | 1.57 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0458 | 0.56 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0076 | 0.73 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9769 | 26.14*** |
Persistence:
0.884
Half-life:
6 days
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