V-Lab
Koninklijke Vopak NV MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
19.37%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Week
21.18%
increased by 1.39%
1 Month
24.66%
increased by 4.87%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 4, 1999 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 65% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 116 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1089 | 23.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7544 | 71.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0713 | 6.79*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 3.0867 | 0.19 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.899
Half-life:
7 days
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