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V-Lab

Koninklijke Vopak NV MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

20.51%

increased by 0.62%

1 Week

21.91%

increased by 2.02%

1 Month

24.44%

increased by 4.55%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 01:45 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Koninklijke Vopak NV MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 4, 1999 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow126
αARCH0.1055
5.82***
βGARCH0.7469
20.35***
γleverage0.0632
1.57
λ₁tau intercept0.0458
0.56
λ₂forecast adj.0.0076
0.73
λ₃tau persistence0.9769
26.14***

0.884

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1055
5.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7469
20.35***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0632
1.57
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0458
0.56
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0076
0.73
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9769
26.14***

Persistence:

0.884

Half-life:

6 days