V-Lab
Koninklijke Vopak NV Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
16.59%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
17.88%
increased by 0.93%
1 Month
19.83%
increased by 2.88%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 4, 1999 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1544 | 4.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1318 | 6.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7125 | 15.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0862 | -0.96 |
| γ2 | 0.1250 | 0.98 |
| γ3 | 0.0425 | 0.50 |
| γ4 | -0.2333 | -2.66*** |
| γ5 | 0.2864 | 2.69*** |
| γ6 | -0.1994 | -1.74* |
| γ7 | 0.0226 | 0.21 |
| γ8 | 0.1532 | 1.69* |
| γ9 | -0.2103 | -2.64*** |
| γ10 | 0.1409 | 2.36** |
Persistence:
0.844
Half-life:
4 days
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