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V-Lab
V-Lab

Koninklijke Vopak NV GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

20.70%

increased by 0.92%

1 Week

21.51%

increased by 1.73%

1 Month

23.56%

increased by 3.78%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 01:43 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Koninklijke Vopak NV GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 4, 1999 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.93 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 11-day half-lifev = 3.93 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.8509
2.10**
αARCH0.0993
4.93***
βGARCH0.9371
30.57***
νDF3.9260
2.15**

0.937

Persistence

11d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.8509
2.10**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0993
4.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9371
30.57***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.9260
2.15**

Persistence:

0.937

Half-life:

11 days