V-Lab
Koninklijke Vopak NV GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
20.70%
increased by 0.92%
1 Week
21.51%
increased by 1.73%
1 Month
23.56%
increased by 3.78%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 01:43 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 4, 1999 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.93 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 11-day half-lifev = 3.93 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.8509 | 2.10** |
| αARCH | 0.0993 | 4.93*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9371 | 30.57*** |
| νDF | 3.9260 | 2.15** |
0.937
Persistence11d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8509 | 2.10** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0993 | 4.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9371 | 30.57*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.9260 | 2.15** |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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