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Vietnam Hanoi Stock Exchange Equity Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026

1 Day

15.40%

decreased by 1.17%

1 Week

16.22%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Month

19.14%

increased by 2.57%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Vietnam Hanoi Stock Exchange Equity Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 13, 2005 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 55% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1386294 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 55% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0513
6.21***
αARCH0.1504
6.21***
βGARCH0.8086
52.56***
γleverage0.0821
2.22**

1.000

Persistence

1386294d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0513
6.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1504
6.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8086
52.56***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0821
2.22**

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days