Vietnam Hanoi Stock Exchange Equity Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
30.30%
decreased by 3.22%
1 Week
30.82%
decreased by 2.70%
1 Month
32.80%
decreased by 0.72%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 13, 2005 to Apr 29, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 242 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0614 | 27.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2211 | 50.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7761 | 242.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2392 | 12.51*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
242 days
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