V-Lab
Vietnam Hanoi Stock Exchange Equity Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
13.74%
1 Week
14.33%
1 Month
16.47%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 13, 2005 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.62 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 33.7010 | 1.34 |
| αARCH | 0.1424 | 21.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9990 | 1,323.18*** |
| νDF | 5.6245 | 6.41*** |
0.999
Persistence693d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 33.7010 | 1.34 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1424 | 21.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 1,323.18*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.6245 | 6.41*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
Other Vietnam Hanoi Stock Exchange Equity Index Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Equity Indices