US Dollar to Kuwaiti Dinar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, November 13th, 2026
1 Day
2.99%
1 Week
3.23%
1 Month
4.03%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 07:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 69314 trading days (~275.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8813 | 0.02 |
| αARCH | 0.1646 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8354 | 0.01 |
| γ1 | -0.4724 | -0.04 |
| γ2 | 0.6345 | 0.03 |
| γ3 | -0.2642 | -0.01 |
| γ4 | 0.1387 | 0.01 |
| γ5 | -0.0473 | -0.14 |
| γ6 | -0.0194 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | 0.0844 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | -0.0756 | 0.00 |
| γ9 | 0.0620 | 0.01 |
| γ10 | -0.0782 | -0.02 |
1.000
Persistence69314d
Half-lifeZero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8813 | 0.02 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1646 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8354 | 0.01 |
| γ1 | -0.4724 | -0.04 |
| γ2 | 0.6345 | 0.03 |
| γ3 | -0.2642 | -0.01 |
| γ4 | 0.1387 | 0.01 |
| γ5 | -0.0473 | -0.14 |
| γ6 | -0.0194 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | 0.0844 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | -0.0756 | 0.00 |
| γ9 | 0.0620 | 0.01 |
| γ10 | -0.0782 | -0.02 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
69314 days
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