V-Lab
US Dollar to Kuwaiti Dinar Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
3.43%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Week
3.63%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
4.34%
increased by 0.72%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 08:54 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 63013 trading days (~250.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~63013 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8086 | 0.12 |
| αARCH | 0.1652 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8348 | 0.01 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.4827 | -0.06 |
| γ2 | 0.6471 | 0.04 |
| γ3 | -0.2664 | -0.01 |
| γ4 | 0.1371 | 0.01 |
| γ5 | -0.0430 | -0.04 |
| γ6 | -0.0259 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | 0.0914 | 0.01 |
| γ8 | -0.0821 | -0.01 |
| γ9 | 0.0684 | 0.01 |
| γ10 | -0.0826 | -0.03 |
1.000
Persistence63013d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8086 | 0.12 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1652 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8348 | 0.01 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.4827 | -0.06 |
| γ2 | 0.6471 | 0.04 |
| γ3 | -0.2664 | -0.01 |
| γ4 | 0.1371 | 0.01 |
| γ5 | -0.0430 | -0.04 |
| γ6 | -0.0259 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | 0.0914 | 0.01 |
| γ8 | -0.0821 | -0.01 |
| γ9 | 0.0684 | 0.01 |
| γ10 | -0.0826 | -0.03 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
63013 days
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