V-Lab
US Dollar to Kuwaiti Dinar Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
2.87%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Week
3.01%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
3.52%
increased by 0.46%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 115524 trading days (~458.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~115524 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7386 | 0.01 |
| αARCH | 0.1712 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8288 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.5508 | -0.11 |
| γ2 | 0.7526 | 0.02 |
| γ3 | -0.3314 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | 0.1792 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | -0.0611 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | -0.0263 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | 0.1047 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | -0.1056 | 0.00 |
| γ9 | 0.1059 | 0.01 |
| γ10 | -0.1602 | 0.00 |
1.000
Persistence115524d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7386 | 0.01 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1712 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8288 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.5508 | -0.11 |
| γ2 | 0.7526 | 0.02 |
| γ3 | -0.3314 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | 0.1792 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | -0.0611 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | -0.0263 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | 0.1047 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | -0.1056 | 0.00 |
| γ9 | 0.1059 | 0.01 |
| γ10 | -0.1602 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
115524 days
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