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US Dollar to Chinese Renminbi Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, November 13th, 2026

1 Day

1.42%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Week

1.43%

increased by 0.00%

1 Month

1.47%

increased by 0.04%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 07:40 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/12/2024

to

11/12/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Chinese Renminbi S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 6, 1992 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138629 trading days (~550.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~138629 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3209
αARCH0.0493
βGARCH0.9507
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ11.6327
γ2-2.3395
γ30.8860
γ4-0.5794
γ50.9640
γ6-0.8735
γ70.3951
γ8-0.1192

1.000

Persistence

138629d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3209
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0493
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9507
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ11.6327
γ2-2.3395
γ30.8860
γ4-0.5794
γ50.9640
γ6-0.8735
γ70.3951
γ8-0.1192

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

138629 days