V-Lab
US Dollar to Chinese Renminbi Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
0.87%
1 Week
0.87%
1 Month
0.87%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 1992 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 115524 trading days (~458.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.3595 | |
| αARCH | 0.0482 | |
| βGARCH | 0.9518 |
| γ1 | 1.6571 | |
| γ2 | -2.3527 | |
| γ3 | 0.8571 | |
| γ4 | -0.4773 | |
| γ5 | 0.7127 | |
| γ6 | -0.5019 | |
| γ7 | -0.0503 | |
| γ8 | 0.2506 |
1.000
Persistence115524d
Half-lifeZero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3595 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0482 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9518 |
| γ1 | 1.6571 | |
| γ2 | -2.3527 | |
| γ3 | 0.8571 | |
| γ4 | -0.4773 | |
| γ5 | 0.7127 | |
| γ6 | -0.5019 | |
| γ7 | -0.0503 | |
| γ8 | 0.2506 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
115524 days
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