US Dollar to Chinese Renminbi Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, November 13th, 2026
1 Day
1.42%
1 Week
1.43%
1 Month
1.47%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 07:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 1992 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138629 trading days (~550.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3209 | |
| αARCH | 0.0493 | |
| βGARCH | 0.9507 |
| γ1 | 1.6327 | |
| γ2 | -2.3395 | |
| γ3 | 0.8860 | |
| γ4 | -0.5794 | |
| γ5 | 0.9640 | |
| γ6 | -0.8735 | |
| γ7 | 0.3951 | |
| γ8 | -0.1192 |
1.000
Persistence138629d
Half-lifeZero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3209 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0493 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9507 |
| γ1 | 1.6327 | |
| γ2 | -2.3395 | |
| γ3 | 0.8860 | |
| γ4 | -0.5794 | |
| γ5 | 0.9640 | |
| γ6 | -0.8735 | |
| γ7 | 0.3951 | |
| γ8 | -0.1192 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
138629 days
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