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V-Lab

US Dollar to Chinese Renminbi Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

0.87%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Week

0.87%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Month

0.87%

decreased by 0.02%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Chinese Renminbi S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 6, 1992 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 115524 trading days (~458.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~115524 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.3595
αARCH0.0482
βGARCH0.9518
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ11.6571
γ2-2.3527
γ30.8571
γ4-0.4773
γ50.7127
γ6-0.5019
γ7-0.0503
γ80.2506

1.000

Persistence

115524d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.3595
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0482
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9518
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ11.6571
γ2-2.3527
γ30.8571
γ4-0.4773
γ50.7127
γ6-0.5019
γ7-0.0503
γ80.2506

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

115524 days