V-Lab
US Dollar to Chinese Renminbi Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
0.97%
1 Week
0.98%
1 Month
1.01%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 09:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 1992 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.7535 | |
| αARCH | 0.0488 | |
| βGARCH | 0.9512 |
| γ1 | 1.7291 | |
| γ2 | -2.4630 | |
| γ3 | 0.8919 | |
| γ4 | -0.4189 | |
| γ5 | 0.5478 | |
| γ6 | -0.3363 | |
| γ7 | -0.0373 | |
| γ8 | 0.1196 |
1.000
Persistence693147d
Half-lifeZero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7535 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0488 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9512 |
| γ1 | 1.7291 | |
| γ2 | -2.4630 | |
| γ3 | 0.8919 | |
| γ4 | -0.4189 | |
| γ5 | 0.5478 | |
| γ6 | -0.3363 | |
| γ7 | -0.0373 | |
| γ8 | 0.1196 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
Other US Dollar to Chinese Renminbi Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Currencies