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US Dollar to Chinese Renminbi Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

0.97%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Week

0.98%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

1.01%

increased by 0.02%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 09:17 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Chinese Renminbi S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 6, 1992 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~693147 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.7535
αARCH0.0488
βGARCH0.9512
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ11.7291
γ2-2.4630
γ30.8919
γ4-0.4189
γ50.5478
γ6-0.3363
γ7-0.0373
γ80.1196

1.000

Persistence

693147d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.7535
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0488
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9512
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ11.7291
γ2-2.4630
γ30.8919
γ4-0.4189
γ50.5478
γ6-0.3363
γ7-0.0373
γ80.1196

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

693147 days