V-Lab
US Dollar to Swiss Franc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
5.66%
increased by 0.08%
1 Week
5.68%
increased by 0.10%
1 Month
5.73%
increased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~80 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4113 | 12.53*** |
| αARCH | 0.0248 | 5.71*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9665 | 187.97*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0004 | 4.70*** |
0.991
Persistence80d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4113 | 12.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0248 | 5.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9665 | 187.97*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0004 | 4.70*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
80 days
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