V-Lab
Travelzoo Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
66.20%
1 Week
71.60%
1 Month
76.49%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 29, 2002 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 50% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1530 | 20.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5156 | 23.70*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0513 | -4.25*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.4151 | 0.65 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0514 | 0.97 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9265 | 11.82*** |
Persistence:
0.643
Half-life:
2 days
Other Travelzoo Inc Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Equities