V-Lab
Travelzoo Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
69.05%
1 Week
72.73%
1 Month
77.09%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 29, 2002 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 48% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1525 | 19.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5058 | 22.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0495 | -4.07*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.4951 | 0.62 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0610 | 0.98 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9129 | 9.64*** |
Persistence:
0.634
Half-life:
2 days
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