V-Lab
Travelzoo Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
54.26%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Week
60.28%
increased by 5.41%
1 Month
65.66%
increased by 10.79%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 29, 2002 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8303 | 6.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1886 | 4.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5385 | 7.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.1280 | 3.78*** |
| γ2 | -0.1961 | -3.94*** |
| γ3 | 0.1493 | 5.14*** |
| γ4 | -0.1299 | -5.15*** |
| γ5 | 0.0594 | 2.91*** |
Persistence:
0.727
Half-life:
2 days
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