V-Lab
Travelzoo Inc GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
53.51%
increased by 4.63%
1 Week
55.87%
increased by 6.99%
1 Month
62.37%
increased by 13.49%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:59 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 29, 2002 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0532 | 3.67*** |
| αARCH | 0.0904 | 5.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8639 | 36.45*** |
0.954
Persistence15d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0532 | 3.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0904 | 5.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8639 | 36.45*** |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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