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V-Lab

Travelzoo Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

60.01%

decreased by 1.29%

1 Week

61.09%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Month

64.40%

increased by 3.10%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Travelzoo Inc GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 29, 2002 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 155% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7694
14.57***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0968
14.68***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8975
204.86***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0588
-8.14***

Persistence:

0.965

Half-life:

19 days