V-Lab
Travelzoo Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
60.01%
decreased by 1.29%
1 Week
61.09%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Month
64.40%
increased by 3.10%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 29, 2002 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 155% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7694 | 14.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0968 | 14.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8975 | 204.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0588 | -8.14*** |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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