V-Lab
Tips Music Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
45.40%
1 Week
51.07%
1 Month
51.04%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 10:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 11, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 59% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2362 | 16.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3531 | 7.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0881 | -3.36*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.3638 | 0.34 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1840 | 0.31 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5966 | 0.47 |
Persistence:
0.545
Half-life:
1 days
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