V-Lab
Tips Music Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
27.94%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Week
31.70%
increased by 3.39%
1 Month
34.53%
increased by 6.22%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 10:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 11, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9122 | 7.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2096 | 6.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4728 | 6.97*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.4422 | -3.88*** |
| γ2 | 0.6204 | 3.85*** |
| γ3 | -0.0967 | -0.84 |
| γ4 | -0.2392 | -1.65* |
| γ5 | 0.2392 | 1.44 |
| γ6 | -0.0731 | -0.45 |
| γ7 | -0.0247 | -0.14 |
| γ8 | -0.0718 | -0.27 |
| γ9 | 0.1704 | 0.76 |
Persistence:
0.682
Half-life:
2 days
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