V-Lab
Thai Baht Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
6.18%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Week
6.27%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Month
6.62%
increased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 1997 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 53 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2958 | 4.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0851 | 10.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9018 | 111.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0001 | -0.02 |
| γ2 | 0.0071 | 1.41 |
| γ3 | -0.0113 | -4.67*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
53 days
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