Skip to main content
V-Lab

Thai Baht Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

6.18%

decreased by 0.23%

1 Week

6.27%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Month

6.62%

increased by 0.21%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Thai Baht S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 14, 1997 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 53 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2958
4.92***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0851
10.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9018
111.53***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1-0.0001
-0.02
γ20.0071
1.41
γ3-0.0113
-4.67***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

53 days