V-Lab
Thai Baht GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
5.55%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
5.58%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Month
5.68%
decreased by 0.11%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 1997 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 202 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 16% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0010 | 19.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0885 | 23.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9142 | 570.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0123 | -2.10** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
202 days
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