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V-Lab

Thai Baht GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

5.55%

decreased by 0.24%

1 Week

5.58%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Month

5.68%

decreased by 0.11%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Thai Baht GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 14, 1997 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 202 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 16% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0010
19.71***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0885
23.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9142
570.29***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0123
-2.10**

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

202 days