V-Lab
Thai Baht GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
7.95%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
7.97%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Month
8.06%
decreased by 0.41%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 1997 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9580 | 7.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0576 | 124.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 8,394.96*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.6474 | 328.55*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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