S&P GSCI Silver Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
35.70%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Week
35.70%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Month
35.68%
decreased by 0.74%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 137 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~137 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8398 | 6.05*** |
| αARCH | 0.0408 | 6.97*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9542 | 159.01*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0004 | -1.79* |
0.995
Persistence137d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8398 | 6.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0408 | 6.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9542 | 159.01*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0004 | -1.79* |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
137 days
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