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V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Silver Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

39.97%

decreased by 0.85%

1 Week

39.93%

decreased by 0.89%

1 Month

39.76%

decreased by 1.06%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:55 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Silver Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 137 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~137 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8413
6.04***
αARCH0.0409
6.97***
βGARCH0.9541
158.38***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0004
-1.78*

0.995

Persistence

137d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8413
6.04***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0409
6.97***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9541
158.38***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0004
-1.78*

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

137 days