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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Silver Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

36.06%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Week

36.05%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Month

36.02%

decreased by 0.56%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:22 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Silver Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 134 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~134 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8389
6.08***
αARCH0.0410
6.96***
βGARCH0.9538
157.53***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0004
-1.78*

0.995

Persistence

134d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8389
6.08***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0410
6.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9538
157.53***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0004
-1.78*

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

134 days