V-Lab
S&P GSCI Silver Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
40.60%
decreased by 0.84%
1 Week
40.61%
decreased by 0.83%
1 Month
40.61%
decreased by 0.83%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:55 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 129 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~129 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9017 | 6.10*** |
| αARCH | 0.0408 | 6.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9538 | 156.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0005 | 0.57 |
0.995
Persistence129d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9017 | 6.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0408 | 6.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9538 | 156.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0005 | 0.57 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
129 days
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