S&P GSCI Palladium Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
39.70%
decreased by 1.07%
1 Week
39.68%
decreased by 1.09%
1 Month
39.58%
decreased by 1.19%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 26, 2008 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 64 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 64 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0628 | 15.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0609 | 15.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9252 | 342.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0063 | 0.92 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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