S&P GSCI Palladium Spot Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
40.90%
decreased by 2.11%
1 Week
40.82%
decreased by 2.19%
1 Month
40.51%
decreased by 2.50%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 26, 2008 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.47) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1086 | 15.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0895 | 29.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8890 | 295.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4650 | 9.93*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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