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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Palladium Spot Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

40.90%

decreased by 2.11%

1 Week

40.82%

decreased by 2.19%

1 Month

40.51%

decreased by 2.50%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Palladium Spot Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 26, 2008 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.47) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1086
15.57***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0895
29.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8890
295.07***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4650
9.93***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

32 days