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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Palladium Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

43.00%

decreased by 2.72%

1 Week

44.06%

decreased by 1.66%

1 Month

44.90%

decreased by 0.82%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:12 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Palladium Spot Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 26, 2008 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 51% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1012
14.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6411
27.64***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0515
5.44***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0198
1.60
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0317
2.68***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9650
73.92***

Persistence:

0.768

Half-life:

3 days