V-Lab
S&P GSCI Palladium Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
43.00%
decreased by 2.72%
1 Week
44.06%
decreased by 1.66%
1 Month
44.90%
decreased by 0.82%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 26, 2008 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 51% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1012 | 14.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6411 | 27.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0515 | 5.44*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0198 | 1.60 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0317 | 2.68*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9650 | 73.92*** |
Persistence:
0.768
Half-life:
3 days
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