S&P GSCI Palladium Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
47.47%
increased by 2.19%
1 Week
47.44%
increased by 2.16%
1 Month
47.34%
increased by 2.06%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 26, 2008 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 216 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 7.4128 | 6.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0438 | 43.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9968 | 2,220.04*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.1803 | 10.16*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
216 days
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