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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Palladium Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

42.77%

decreased by 1.31%

1 Week

42.77%

decreased by 1.31%

1 Month

42.78%

decreased by 1.30%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:12 PM UTC

Date Range:

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graph of S&P GSCI Palladium Spot Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 26, 2008 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 212 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.19 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

7.3312
6.13***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0438
43.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9967
2,152.79***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.1916
10.04***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

212 days