V-Lab
S&P GSCI Palladium Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
39.15%
decreased by 1.11%
1 Week
39.17%
decreased by 1.09%
1 Month
39.27%
decreased by 0.99%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 26, 2008 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 211 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.17 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 7.2723 | 6.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0435 | 43.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9967 | 2,125.21*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.1699 | 10.10*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
211 days
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