V-Lab
S&P GSCI Livestock Spot Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
14.40%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Week
14.44%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Month
14.59%
decreased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 32 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8331 | 18.40*** |
| αARCH | 0.0490 | 9.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9294 | 126.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0003 | -3.33*** |
0.978
Persistence32d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8331 | 18.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0490 | 9.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9294 | 126.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0003 | -3.33*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
32 days
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