S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
9.57%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
9.78%
increased by 0.07%
1 Month
10.49%
increased by 0.78%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 40 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7620 | 4.42*** |
| αARCH | 0.0556 | 7.96*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9273 | 112.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0211 | 1.80* |
| γ2 | -0.0224 | -1.38 |
| γ3 | -0.0173 | -1.67* |
| γ4 | 0.0333 | 3.68*** |
| γ5 | -0.0185 | -2.96*** |
0.983
Persistence40d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7620 | 4.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0556 | 7.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9273 | 112.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0211 | 1.80* |
| γ2 | -0.0224 | -1.38 |
| γ3 | -0.0173 | -1.67* |
| γ4 | 0.0333 | 3.68*** |
| γ5 | -0.0185 | -2.96*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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