V-Lab
S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
10.87%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
11.02%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
11.54%
increased by 0.50%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 40 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7598 | 4.42*** |
| αARCH | 0.0555 | 7.95*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9273 | 112.10*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0210 | 1.79* |
| γ2 | -0.0221 | -1.36 |
| γ3 | -0.0177 | -1.71* |
| γ4 | 0.0338 | 3.75*** |
| γ5 | -0.0190 | -3.04*** |
0.983
Persistence40d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7598 | 4.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0555 | 7.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9273 | 112.10*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0210 | 1.79* |
| γ2 | -0.0221 | -1.36 |
| γ3 | -0.0177 | -1.71* |
| γ4 | 0.0338 | 3.75*** |
| γ5 | -0.0190 | -3.04*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
Other S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Commodities