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V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

11.36%

increased by 0.78%

1 Week

11.35%

increased by 0.77%

1 Month

11.32%

increased by 0.74%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:57 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 37 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7512
4.47***
αARCH0.0559
7.86***
βGARCH0.9257
108.92***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ10.0201
1.74*
γ2-0.0196
-1.22
γ3-0.0228
-2.23**
γ40.0453
4.27***
γ5-0.0487
-2.67***

0.982

Persistence

37d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7512
4.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0559
7.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9257
108.92***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ10.0201
1.74*
γ2-0.0196
-1.22
γ3-0.0228
-2.23**
γ40.0453
4.27***
γ5-0.0487
-2.67***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

37 days