V-Lab
S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
11.36%
increased by 0.78%
1 Week
11.35%
increased by 0.77%
1 Month
11.32%
increased by 0.74%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:57 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 37 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7512 | 4.47*** |
| αARCH | 0.0559 | 7.86*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9257 | 108.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0201 | 1.74* |
| γ2 | -0.0196 | -1.22 |
| γ3 | -0.0228 | -2.23** |
| γ4 | 0.0453 | 4.27*** |
| γ5 | -0.0487 | -2.67*** |
0.982
Persistence37d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7512 | 4.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0559 | 7.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9257 | 108.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0201 | 1.74* |
| γ2 | -0.0196 | -1.22 |
| γ3 | -0.0228 | -2.23** |
| γ4 | 0.0453 | 4.27*** |
| γ5 | -0.0487 | -2.67*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
37 days
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