V-Lab
S&P GSCI Aluminum Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
17.42%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
17.51%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Month
17.83%
increased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 1991 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0236 | 17.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0537 | 18.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9327 | 417.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0015 | -0.36 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
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