V-Lab
S&P GSCI Aluminum Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
21.47%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
21.44%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Month
21.33%
decreased by 0.47%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 1991 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0230 | 16.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0529 | 17.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9337 | 418.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0010 | -0.25 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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