V-Lab
S&P GSCI Aluminum Spot Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
18.56%
increased by 0.01%
1 Week
18.67%
increased by 0.12%
1 Month
19.07%
increased by 0.52%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 1991 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0107 | 15.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1185 | 28.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9845 | 988.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0036 | 1.03 |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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