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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Aluminum Spot Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

18.56%

increased by 0.01%

1 Week

18.67%

increased by 0.12%

1 Month

19.07%

increased by 0.52%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Aluminum Spot Index EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 1991 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days.

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0107
15.36***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1185
28.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9845
988.41***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0036
1.03

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

44 days